On to Round 2. Maryland-Memphis Preview

The Terps are peaking at the right time. No longer are they a team that looks confused, out of control, and reckless. Memphis struggled in the first round against the lowly CSU-Northridge Matadors pulling it out in the last 6 minutes to win by 11. Prior to the start of the tournament, most would've thought that Memphis would be able to take care of the Terps. After Memphis' struggles in the first round and Maryland's solid win over Cal, this game may be much closer than previously expected.

Why Maryland will lose to Memphis:

1. Memphis has only lost 3 games: Statistically, Memphis is the hottest team in the country, winning their past 26 games. Their three losses are to legitimate opponents in Xavier, Syracuse, and Georgetown. One could argue that their winning streak can be attributed to the weakness of their conference. However I think that no matter who you play, winning 26 consecutive games and losing only 3 is remarkable.
2. Memphis is BIG: The Tigers start 2 players at least 6'9" and none shorter than 6'6". Memphis' two big men, Robert Dozier and Shwan Taggert, combine to average 23.2 points and 14.7 rebounds per game. There is no doubt that Memphis will get the ball to Dozier and Taggert as much as possible. Maryland has been able to occasionally limit big men like Tyler Hansborough but Memphis' two towers inside may be too much for the Terps to handle.
3. Tyreke Evans: The freshman ball handler for the Tigers averages over 16 points a game, 5 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists to go along with an average of 2 steals per game. Although he is not a substantial threat from three point range, he is a game changer who brings a lot of raw talent to the table.
4. Strong defense: Memphis is only allowing an unprecedented average of 57.3 points a game. In addition the Tigers are allowing their opponents to shoot a meager 36% from the field. With Maryland's occasional shakiness in ball handling, look for John Calipari's man-to-man defense to exploit the Maryland ball handlers.
5. Been there, done that: Memphis came up short last year in the finals of the NCAA tournament losing to Kansas. There is no doubt Memphis wants to avenge their loss. The Tigers are certainly capable of returning to the championship game. In addition, Memphis has not lost a second round matchup since losing to 3 seeeded Oklahoma State in 2004.

Why Maryland will beat Memphis:

1. The Terps have great guard play: Greivis Vasquez, Adrian Bowie, and Eric Hayes combined for 63 of Maryland's 84 points, 15 of their 18 assists, and only 5 turnovers against Cal on Thursday. If these three players continue to play smart and effective basketball against Memphis, I see no reason why they aren't capable of leading the Terps to the sweet 16.
2. Maryland has more big game experience this season: While Memphis has played against Gonzaga, Syracuse, and Xavier this season, the Tigers did not have the benefit of playing in the deep and talented ACC like Maryland. The strength of the ACC has prepared the Terps for anyone whereas Memphis has been beating up on teams like Southern Medodist, Houston, and Rice.
3. Memphis can't shoot free throws well: The Tigers are shooting 69% from the stripe this year. Against CSU-Northridge, Memphis shot 12-21 (57%). Since Memphis will be driving to the hoop a lot against the undersized Terps, expect for free throws to make a difference down the stretch against Maryland. The Terps on the other hand are shooting 77% from the line, good for 2nd best in the ACC.
4. Gary Williams: As mentioned in the Cal preview, Maryland has experience in the NCAA tournament, national championship experience. Gary Williams channels his passion and energy through his players and there is no doubt the Terps will be ready to play on Saturday.
5. Maryland is hot: The Terps were left for dead at 7-9 in the ACC after their embarassing loss to Virginia a couple weeks ago. Since that dissapointing game, the Terps have rebounded winning 3 out of their past 4. Of course Memphis has won 26 games in a row however Maryland is playing at a level that is currently capable of giving anyone a game.

What Maryland needs to do to beat Memphis:

1. Greivis Vasquez must continue leading: The Terps fiery leader continued his spectacular season against Cal scoring 27 points to go along with 4 assists and 5 rebounds. In the second half Vasquez shushed the crowd after stealing a Cal pass and scoring a lay-up. There is no doubt that Maryland's success is dependant on Vasquez's play. Vasquez is going to need to stay focused and play under control against Memphis like he did against Cal if Maryland wants a spot in the sweet 16.
2. Maintain strong defensive play: Memphis is going to drive to the basket much more than Cal did. Therefore Dave Neal and Dino Gregory are going to need to step up yet again to supress Memphis' inside game. Maryland has been able to limit teams with strong inside games this year however. Besides guarding the rim, Maryland is going to have to be especially agressive against Tyreke Evans. The freshman guard has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.07/1.
3. Attack the rim: Adrain Bowie was a prime example against Cal of how Maryland can spread the floor and open up players outside the arc when the Terps can effectively drive. Maryland isn't going to have the luxury of being able to easily attack the rim like they did against Cal. Memphis is an imposing group of players who are very underrated defensively. If Maryland isn't getting open looks from three, they will need to force the ball inside.

Prediction: Memphis 76 Maryland 72

I would like to hear what you have to say about this matchup. Feel free to disagree with anything I said and suggest your own reasons why Maryland or Memphis will win.