2009 Orioles Prediction

The Orioles will begin the 2009 regular season believing that they actually are on the right track. This is not an unfamiliar mindset. It seems that almost every season, the Orioles sell a sense of false hope to their fans when in reality the Orioles ship is unguided and heading in the wrong direction. What makes things different this time around? When it comes down to it, not much. The team will probably finish 20 or so games under .500 and they will struggle to fill up the best ballpark in baseball. However most fans, including myself, truly believe that the Orioles' ship is guided and headed in the right direction. Andy MacPhail (pictured) has the proven track record and appropriate mentality while the team's prospects are starting to line up. MacPhail has said that fans need to give it time. Time that is starting to run out on my clock, and the clocks of thousands of die hard fans. When it comes down to it, what choice do O's fans have? We need to stick through the tough times knowing that the possibility for extended success is within reach.


Here are my predictions for the 2009 season:

Orioles Record: 70-92 (5th place)

Team MVP: Nick Markakis. There is no doubt in my mind that Markakis will continue to develop in multiple areas this year. Last year, he blossomed into one of the best right fielders in baseball. Why can't he blossom into one of the most solid hitters in baseball as well?

Biggest Bust: Melvin Mora. Mora shocked the entire organization during the second half last season but I can't expect that burst to continue. He is 37 years old and I suspect he won't be able to sustain the grind of a 162 game season.

Most surprising player: Koji Uehara (pictured). He comes to the Orioles with no experience playing in the United States but that may not necessarily be a bad thing. Very proven and successful in Japan, Uehara has something new to bring to the Orioles organization. His bevvy of pitches and location control should go a long way this season.

Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters. There is no need to comment further on his oozing potential and indication that the club is headed in the right direction with this prodigy.

Bold Predictions: Adam Jones bats .310 and Alfredo Simon records 13 wins. Jamie Walker gets demoted or put on waivers after two months with an ERA over 7.00.

Expect a new post about once a week during the regular season.

Why the Ravens should go after Plaxico

Here's what the Ravens need on offense: a receiver who can go up and catch any pass from Joe Flacco. Plaxico Burress has proven that he is one of the most capable large recievers in the NFL. What the Ravens don't need is someone who may cause off-field distractions. The Giants signed Plaxico knowing that he occasionally got into scuffles or trouble. Until his absurd shooting incident, Burress stayed out of trouble and rarely feuded with Eli Manning or Tom Coughlin.

I'm pretty sure that Ray Lewis would whip Plaxico into shape if he caused any problems for the Ravens. I"m also pretty sure that John Harbaugh has taken full control over his team and wouldn't let someone like Burress cause any trouble. However I understand that it may be nice for Flacco to have a young wide receiver to develop with. The Ravens most dire need is at cornerback and Ozzie Newsome may want to have the first round pick to go after a defensive player. If the Ravens sign Burress, they wouldn't have to go for a wide receiver in the first round.

Either way, the Ravens are going to be taking a gamble. Either they risk using a low first round pick to go after an unproven but potentially effective WR or they go after one of the best WR's in the game with off the field issues. What would you rather the Ravens do?

On to Round 2. Maryland-Memphis Preview

The Terps are peaking at the right time. No longer are they a team that looks confused, out of control, and reckless. Memphis struggled in the first round against the lowly CSU-Northridge Matadors pulling it out in the last 6 minutes to win by 11. Prior to the start of the tournament, most would've thought that Memphis would be able to take care of the Terps. After Memphis' struggles in the first round and Maryland's solid win over Cal, this game may be much closer than previously expected.

Why Maryland will lose to Memphis:

1. Memphis has only lost 3 games: Statistically, Memphis is the hottest team in the country, winning their past 26 games. Their three losses are to legitimate opponents in Xavier, Syracuse, and Georgetown. One could argue that their winning streak can be attributed to the weakness of their conference. However I think that no matter who you play, winning 26 consecutive games and losing only 3 is remarkable.
2. Memphis is BIG: The Tigers start 2 players at least 6'9" and none shorter than 6'6". Memphis' two big men, Robert Dozier and Shwan Taggert, combine to average 23.2 points and 14.7 rebounds per game. There is no doubt that Memphis will get the ball to Dozier and Taggert as much as possible. Maryland has been able to occasionally limit big men like Tyler Hansborough but Memphis' two towers inside may be too much for the Terps to handle.
3. Tyreke Evans: The freshman ball handler for the Tigers averages over 16 points a game, 5 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists to go along with an average of 2 steals per game. Although he is not a substantial threat from three point range, he is a game changer who brings a lot of raw talent to the table.
4. Strong defense: Memphis is only allowing an unprecedented average of 57.3 points a game. In addition the Tigers are allowing their opponents to shoot a meager 36% from the field. With Maryland's occasional shakiness in ball handling, look for John Calipari's man-to-man defense to exploit the Maryland ball handlers.
5. Been there, done that: Memphis came up short last year in the finals of the NCAA tournament losing to Kansas. There is no doubt Memphis wants to avenge their loss. The Tigers are certainly capable of returning to the championship game. In addition, Memphis has not lost a second round matchup since losing to 3 seeeded Oklahoma State in 2004.

Why Maryland will beat Memphis:

1. The Terps have great guard play: Greivis Vasquez, Adrian Bowie, and Eric Hayes combined for 63 of Maryland's 84 points, 15 of their 18 assists, and only 5 turnovers against Cal on Thursday. If these three players continue to play smart and effective basketball against Memphis, I see no reason why they aren't capable of leading the Terps to the sweet 16.
2. Maryland has more big game experience this season: While Memphis has played against Gonzaga, Syracuse, and Xavier this season, the Tigers did not have the benefit of playing in the deep and talented ACC like Maryland. The strength of the ACC has prepared the Terps for anyone whereas Memphis has been beating up on teams like Southern Medodist, Houston, and Rice.
3. Memphis can't shoot free throws well: The Tigers are shooting 69% from the stripe this year. Against CSU-Northridge, Memphis shot 12-21 (57%). Since Memphis will be driving to the hoop a lot against the undersized Terps, expect for free throws to make a difference down the stretch against Maryland. The Terps on the other hand are shooting 77% from the line, good for 2nd best in the ACC.
4. Gary Williams: As mentioned in the Cal preview, Maryland has experience in the NCAA tournament, national championship experience. Gary Williams channels his passion and energy through his players and there is no doubt the Terps will be ready to play on Saturday.
5. Maryland is hot: The Terps were left for dead at 7-9 in the ACC after their embarassing loss to Virginia a couple weeks ago. Since that dissapointing game, the Terps have rebounded winning 3 out of their past 4. Of course Memphis has won 26 games in a row however Maryland is playing at a level that is currently capable of giving anyone a game.

What Maryland needs to do to beat Memphis:

1. Greivis Vasquez must continue leading: The Terps fiery leader continued his spectacular season against Cal scoring 27 points to go along with 4 assists and 5 rebounds. In the second half Vasquez shushed the crowd after stealing a Cal pass and scoring a lay-up. There is no doubt that Maryland's success is dependant on Vasquez's play. Vasquez is going to need to stay focused and play under control against Memphis like he did against Cal if Maryland wants a spot in the sweet 16.
2. Maintain strong defensive play: Memphis is going to drive to the basket much more than Cal did. Therefore Dave Neal and Dino Gregory are going to need to step up yet again to supress Memphis' inside game. Maryland has been able to limit teams with strong inside games this year however. Besides guarding the rim, Maryland is going to have to be especially agressive against Tyreke Evans. The freshman guard has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.07/1.
3. Attack the rim: Adrain Bowie was a prime example against Cal of how Maryland can spread the floor and open up players outside the arc when the Terps can effectively drive. Maryland isn't going to have the luxury of being able to easily attack the rim like they did against Cal. Memphis is an imposing group of players who are very underrated defensively. If Maryland isn't getting open looks from three, they will need to force the ball inside.

Prediction: Memphis 76 Maryland 72

I would like to hear what you have to say about this matchup. Feel free to disagree with anything I said and suggest your own reasons why Maryland or Memphis will win.

Tourney Time! Maryland-Cal Preview

The two most exciting weeks of the sports year just began. As a Maryland sports fan, things started out on the right foot. The Terps earned their spot in the field of 65. The Terps face off with Cal in Kansas City this Thursday. Tipoff is at 2:55.

Why Maryland will lose to Cal:

1. Cal puts up a good fight: Earlier this season, Cal played Florida State down to the wire in November losing by three, 80-77. A few weeks ago, the Golden Bears barely lost to then ranked #19 UCLA 72-68. Most recently in the Pac-10 tournament, Cal lost by four in a thriller against the Pac-10 tourney champion USC, 79-75.
2. Jerome Randle: The 5'10" junior point guard is among the nation's best high impact players. Not only is he averaging 18.4 points and 5 assists a game, he is shooting 47% from three point range, hitting 86% of his free throws, and is the undoubted leader of this Golden Bears team. By the way, he has scored at least 20 points 16 times this season.
3. Maryland is tired, Cal is rested: Although Cal was dismissed early from the Pac-10 tournament likely lowering their spirits, by Thursday, Cal will have only played one game in 12 days. At this point in the season, most teams need rest, Cal got it. Maryland on the other hand just finished playing in three hard fought contests this past weekend.

Why Maryland will beat Cal:

1. Maryland is hot, Cal is cold: Maryland won two huge games and competed well with Duke in the ACC tournament to give them the momentum and wins needed to get into the tourney. Cal has lost four of their previous six games, including a first round dismissal in the Pac-10 tourney.
2. Cal hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since 2003: Cal beat NC State back in the first round of the 2003 NCAA tourney. Not a single Golden Bear has NCAA tournament experience. Four Terps were on the roster in 2007 when Maryland was a four seed in the Big Dance.
3. Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes, and Dave Neal: These three players collectively averaged 43.7 points in the ACC tournament. Vasquez is the outright leader, Hayes is increasing his offensive production, and Dave Neal is showing his senior leadership. These three players will need to continue producing and leading if Maryland wants to beat Cal.
4. The Terps are predictably unpredictable: You never know with this team. They are capable of beating a top ten team at any point and they are capable of losing to teams like Morgan State and Virginia.
5. History: In Maryland's past eight trips to the NCAA Tournament, they have not lost a first round game. Maryland hasn't been booted from the first round since the 1997 tourney. Keith Booth was a senior that year.

What needs to happen for Maryland to beat Cal:

1. Continued production and leadership from Greivis Vasquez: The outright leader of the team is going to need to prove again that he can succeed when the season is on the line.
2. Landon Milbourne must step up: The junior forward has only averaged a mere 5.6 points in Maryland's three ACC games, almost a 50% drop from his season average of 11.6 points/game. His reliable mid-range jump shot is a great weapon to have when the Terps are overmatched inside and can't hit three points shots.
3. Maryland will need to limit Jerome Randle: The speedy and high-scoring Randle is going to need to be well defended by the Terps. Adrian Bowie is going to have a very long night if he cannot slow down Randle.
4. The pendulum must sway Maryland's way: Maryland is the epitome of an up-and-down team. Who knows what will happen this Thursday, but luck is going to play a role in this game as it does in a large portion of NCAA Tournament games.

Prediction: Maryland 74 Cal 66

I would really to hear what you have to say about the matchup and the fact the Terps have even made it this far.

Response to post by James:

The most important thing going for the Terps in this game is their experience and, as you mentioned, their head coach. Gary Williams has been here before and knows how to win in the NCAA tourney.

I understand your comment about the Terps being tired. Maryland has had less time off than Cal which may give a slight edge to the Golden Bears simply because they may be a little bit more fresh. However, Cal's extended break may come back to bite them. I wouldn't be surprised to see come out of the gates slowly.

Another important factor this game will be the playing style of Greivis Vasquez. Since Cal does not have a great inside presence, I would look for Vasquez to drive the lane more frequently than he did against Duke. Greivis has proved that he can step back and hit a three but he can also drive to the basket with the best of them. Regardless of how well Vasquez and the rest of the team is shooting from the field, Vasquez needs to get to the rim in this game.

BK

2nd response to comment:

Almost every team that controls the inside and outside game is pretty hard to beat. If Maryland can play solid defense in the tournament and not get too cold on offense, I foresee a potential Cinderella-like run. The Terps can't look ahead though. Gary Williams will make sure that his team doesn't think about the possibilities of playing Memphis. Cal should be the only thing on the Terps mind.

BK