The two most exciting weeks of the sports year just began. As a Maryland sports fan, things started out on the right foot. The Terps earned their spot in the field of 65. The Terps face off with Cal in Kansas City this Thursday. Tipoff is at 2:55.
Why Maryland will lose to Cal:
1. Cal puts up a good fight: Earlier this season, Cal played Florida State down to the wire in November losing by three, 80-77. A few weeks ago, the Golden Bears barely lost to then ranked #19 UCLA 72-68. Most recently in the Pac-10 tournament, Cal lost by four in a thriller against the Pac-10 tourney champion USC, 79-75.
2. Jerome Randle: The 5'10" junior point guard is among the nation's best high impact players. Not only is he averaging 18.4 points and 5 assists a game, he is shooting 47% from three point range, hitting 86% of his free throws, and is the undoubted leader of this Golden Bears team. By the way, he has scored at least 20 points 16 times this season.
3. Maryland is tired, Cal is rested: Although Cal was dismissed early from the Pac-10 tournament likely lowering their spirits, by Thursday, Cal will have only played one game in 12 days. At this point in the season, most teams need rest, Cal got it. Maryland on the other hand just finished playing in three hard fought contests this past weekend.
Why Maryland will beat Cal:
1. Maryland is hot, Cal is cold: Maryland won two huge games and competed well with Duke in the ACC tournament to give them the momentum and wins needed to get into the tourney. Cal has lost four of their previous six games, including a first round dismissal in the Pac-10 tourney.
2. Cal hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since 2003: Cal beat NC State back in the first round of the 2003 NCAA tourney. Not a single Golden Bear has NCAA tournament experience. Four Terps were on the roster in 2007 when Maryland was a four seed in the Big Dance.
3. Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes, and Dave Neal: These three players collectively averaged 43.7 points in the ACC tournament. Vasquez is the outright leader, Hayes is increasing his offensive production, and Dave Neal is showing his senior leadership. These three players will need to continue producing and leading if Maryland wants to beat Cal.
4. The Terps are predictably unpredictable: You never know with this team. They are capable of beating a top ten team at any point and they are capable of losing to teams like Morgan State and Virginia.
5. History: In Maryland's past eight trips to the NCAA Tournament, they have not lost a first round game. Maryland hasn't been booted from the first round since the 1997 tourney. Keith Booth was a senior that year.
What needs to happen for Maryland to beat Cal:
1. Continued production and leadership from Greivis Vasquez: The outright leader of the team is going to need to prove again that he can succeed when the season is on the line.
2. Landon Milbourne must step up: The junior forward has only averaged a mere 5.6 points in Maryland's three ACC games, almost a 50% drop from his season average of 11.6 points/game. His reliable mid-range jump shot is a great weapon to have when the Terps are overmatched inside and can't hit three points shots.
3. Maryland will need to limit Jerome Randle: The speedy and high-scoring Randle is going to need to be well defended by the Terps. Adrian Bowie is going to have a very long night if he cannot slow down Randle.
4. The pendulum must sway Maryland's way: Maryland is the epitome of an up-and-down team. Who knows what will happen this Thursday, but luck is going to play a role in this game as it does in a large portion of NCAA Tournament games.
Prediction: Maryland 74 Cal 66
I would really to hear what you have to say about the matchup and the fact the Terps have even made it this far.
Response to post by James:
The most important thing going for the Terps in this game is their experience and, as you mentioned, their head coach. Gary Williams has been here before and knows how to win in the NCAA tourney.
I understand your comment about the Terps being tired. Maryland has had less time off than Cal which may give a slight edge to the Golden Bears simply because they may be a little bit more fresh. However, Cal's extended break may come back to bite them. I wouldn't be surprised to see come out of the gates slowly.
Another important factor this game will be the playing style of Greivis Vasquez. Since Cal does not have a great inside presence, I would look for Vasquez to drive the lane more frequently than he did against Duke. Greivis has proved that he can step back and hit a three but he can also drive to the basket with the best of them. Regardless of how well Vasquez and the rest of the team is shooting from the field, Vasquez needs to get to the rim in this game.
BK
2nd response to comment:
Almost every team that controls the inside and outside game is pretty hard to beat. If Maryland can play solid defense in the tournament and not get too cold on offense, I foresee a potential Cinderella-like run. The Terps can't look ahead though. Gary Williams will make sure that his team doesn't think about the possibilities of playing Memphis. Cal should be the only thing on the Terps mind.
BK
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I realize that you couldn't find too many good reasons for California to win this game (the only solid "why maryland will lose to cal" was with jerome randle). The only two ways I see California winning this game is if they make their threes consistently(which their team is known to do, not just randle), and if maryland's offense is anemic. both of these are completely possible, however, i think that maryland's offense will be fine. the three's from cal will give us some trouble, but i think we will pull this out in a close one.
ReplyDeletei disagree with maryland being tired. they have had off since saturday and play thursday. that's over half of the week that they have off to regain some energy as well as prepare for the tournament. plus, vasquez will have them jacked up. and california has had plenty of rest, true. but they were struggling mightily, and the last thing any team wants is one game over two weeks. i think that maryland having played basketball more frequently than cal is an advantage for maryland rather than for cal.
plus we got gary williams on our side. without gary we wouldn't be here.
Prediction: Maryland 78-California 70
James
another positive for maryland is that, like maryland, cal has no inside game. that means that the terps should be able to somewhat control cal's outside shooting because we won't have to focus on the inside. maryland on offense of course has the same problem, but we've seen that maryland plays great when they can control outside shooting/inside game/both (wake forest and unc wins are good examples. wake forest couldn't shoot from the outside, and tyler hansbrough couldn't score from the inside for unc).
ReplyDeleteJames
Maryland has had trouble defending the three. This worries me. The three has hurt them at times this year. But, like James said, the fact that Cal does not have a good inside game hopefully means that the Terps can focus on the three more than usual. Usually, playing in the ACC, the Terps are more worried about defending against the inside game and having a presence on the boards. I am going with Maryland.
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