The Terps are peaking at the right time. No longer are they a team that looks confused, out of control, and reckless. Memphis struggled in the first round against the lowly CSU-Northridge Matadors pulling it out in the last 6 minutes to win by 11. Prior to the start of the tournament, most would've thought that Memphis would be able to take care of the Terps. After Memphis' struggles in the first round and Maryland's solid win over Cal, this game may be much closer than previously expected.
Why Maryland will lose to Memphis:
1. Memphis has only lost 3 games: Statistically, Memphis is the hottest team in the country, winning their past 26 games. Their three losses are to legitimate opponents in Xavier, Syracuse, and Georgetown. One could argue that their winning streak can be attributed to the weakness of their conference. However I think that no matter who you play, winning 26 consecutive games and losing only 3 is remarkable.
2. Memphis is BIG: The Tigers start 2 players at least 6'9" and none shorter than 6'6". Memphis' two big men, Robert Dozier and Shwan Taggert, combine to average 23.2 points and 14.7 rebounds per game. There is no doubt that Memphis will get the ball to Dozier and Taggert as much as possible. Maryland has been able to occasionally limit big men like Tyler Hansborough but Memphis' two towers inside may be too much for the Terps to handle.
3. Tyreke Evans: The freshman ball handler for the Tigers averages over 16 points a game, 5 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists to go along with an average of 2 steals per game. Although he is not a substantial threat from three point range, he is a game changer who brings a lot of raw talent to the table.
4. Strong defense: Memphis is only allowing an unprecedented average of 57.3 points a game. In addition the Tigers are allowing their opponents to shoot a meager 36% from the field. With Maryland's occasional shakiness in ball handling, look for John Calipari's man-to-man defense to exploit the Maryland ball handlers.
5. Been there, done that: Memphis came up short last year in the finals of the NCAA tournament losing to Kansas. There is no doubt Memphis wants to avenge their loss. The Tigers are certainly capable of returning to the championship game. In addition, Memphis has not lost a second round matchup since losing to 3 seeeded Oklahoma State in 2004.
Why Maryland will beat Memphis:
1. The Terps have great guard play: Greivis Vasquez, Adrian Bowie, and Eric Hayes combined for 63 of Maryland's 84 points, 15 of their 18 assists, and only 5 turnovers against Cal on Thursday. If these three players continue to play smart and effective basketball against Memphis, I see no reason why they aren't capable of leading the Terps to the sweet 16.
2. Maryland has more big game experience this season: While Memphis has played against Gonzaga, Syracuse, and Xavier this season, the Tigers did not have the benefit of playing in the deep and talented ACC like Maryland. The strength of the ACC has prepared the Terps for anyone whereas Memphis has been beating up on teams like Southern Medodist, Houston, and Rice.
3. Memphis can't shoot free throws well: The Tigers are shooting 69% from the stripe this year. Against CSU-Northridge, Memphis shot 12-21 (57%). Since Memphis will be driving to the hoop a lot against the undersized Terps, expect for free throws to make a difference down the stretch against Maryland. The Terps on the other hand are shooting 77% from the line, good for 2nd best in the ACC.
4. Gary Williams: As mentioned in the Cal preview, Maryland has experience in the NCAA tournament, national championship experience. Gary Williams channels his passion and energy through his players and there is no doubt the Terps will be ready to play on Saturday.
5. Maryland is hot: The Terps were left for dead at 7-9 in the ACC after their embarassing loss to Virginia a couple weeks ago. Since that dissapointing game, the Terps have rebounded winning 3 out of their past 4. Of course Memphis has won 26 games in a row however Maryland is playing at a level that is currently capable of giving anyone a game.
What Maryland needs to do to beat Memphis:
1. Greivis Vasquez must continue leading: The Terps fiery leader continued his spectacular season against Cal scoring 27 points to go along with 4 assists and 5 rebounds. In the second half Vasquez shushed the crowd after stealing a Cal pass and scoring a lay-up. There is no doubt that Maryland's success is dependant on Vasquez's play. Vasquez is going to need to stay focused and play under control against Memphis like he did against Cal if Maryland wants a spot in the sweet 16.
2. Maintain strong defensive play: Memphis is going to drive to the basket much more than Cal did. Therefore Dave Neal and Dino Gregory are going to need to step up yet again to supress Memphis' inside game. Maryland has been able to limit teams with strong inside games this year however. Besides guarding the rim, Maryland is going to have to be especially agressive against Tyreke Evans. The freshman guard has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.07/1.
3. Attack the rim: Adrain Bowie was a prime example against Cal of how Maryland can spread the floor and open up players outside the arc when the Terps can effectively drive. Maryland isn't going to have the luxury of being able to easily attack the rim like they did against Cal. Memphis is an imposing group of players who are very underrated defensively. If Maryland isn't getting open looks from three, they will need to force the ball inside.
Prediction: Memphis 76 Maryland 72
I would like to hear what you have to say about this matchup. Feel free to disagree with anything I said and suggest your own reasons why Maryland or Memphis will win.
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Great win for UM today. You never know with this team but I would have to agree that Memphis just has too much for UM to handle, especially their big guys.
ReplyDeleteI'm nervous about this game. Not because I think we should win, but because I think we could get blown out. I know that we're a different team now than when we lost to duke by 41 points, and even to clemson by 30, but i can see memphis coming out fired up after a bad game against cal st. northridge.
ReplyDeletehowever, i could also see memphis struggling against us because of that rough game. i think this, as opposed to what i posed above, will be the case. i think that with gary williams coaching, and our team on a good run, we can keep this close. we shot pretty well against cal today, and hopefully we'll keep that up.
unfortunately i think we'll lose. a rough game for memphis doesn't automatically mean a loss. they are a 2 seed that could've easily snuck in and gotten a 1 seed. with evans, dozier, and taggart, memphis has three great players that maryland could have some trouble with, especially the big men. however maryland has played great defense recently, so i think the damage will not be too bad from these guys. we just need to drive into the paint, get these guys in foul trouble like cal st. northridge did, and then do what we can from there.
but even if those players do get in foul trouble, memphis has enough depth for people to step up off the bench. today, that guy was sallie, who scored over thirty points. maryland needs to control the perimeter if they can get dozier and taggart somewhat out of the game.
however, all of this will be tough, and, while i expect this game to be close, i expect maryland to lose. no matter what happens, though, this season has already turned out better than anyone expected.
Prediction: Memphis 84, Maryland 73
Memphis may have more weapons than the Terps can handle. Maryland has no chance if Sallie steps up the way he did against CSU-Northridge. That being said, Maryland was able to guard the perimeter well against Cal. They didn't let one of the best three point shooters in D1, Jerome Randle, take over the game. I agree with you James that Memphis is a 1 seed quality team playing as a 2 seed. However Maryland has knocked off a 1 seed (UNC) and a 2 seed (Michigan State) this season. Maryland has been playing beyond everyone's expectations during the past week and a half. I have to expect the Terps will come out strong in the beginning anxious to take down another giant. I don't expect the Terps to be able to suppress Memphis' offensive weapons and break the tight Memphis defense towards the end.
ReplyDeleteBK
i'm getting really excited for this game tomorrow. it's fun to see thirty-two teams lose in the first round, knowing you've won that first game. i really hope my prediction is wrong. i think that maryland will be able to control the perimeter as they did against cal, but i think that memphis will be strong inside. hopefully neal, gregory, and milbourne can keep memphis honest inside the paint.
ReplyDeleteand once again, on offense, we need to drive to the basket, and get their guys in foul trouble. we have to get to the free throw line consistently.
Dino Gregory may have a big impact on this game. He has stepped up the past few games providing solid minutes for the Terps. Although he's not the most skillful player on the court, he is certainly capable of reeling in rebounds and the occasional basket. The Terps haven't had strong bench play this year but in their big wins, they've needed it. Remember Cliff Tucker scoring 24 against UNC or Sean Mosley's 12 points and 6 boards against Wake?
ReplyDeleteBK
sean mosley didn't get those points off the bench but i understand your point.
ReplyDeleteLETS GO TERPS
Memphis by 18.
ReplyDelete