Wednesday, March 18, 2009

On to Round 2. Maryland-Memphis Preview

The Terps are peaking at the right time. No longer are they a team that looks confused, out of control, and reckless. Memphis struggled in the first round against the lowly CSU-Northridge Matadors pulling it out in the last 6 minutes to win by 11. Prior to the start of the tournament, most would've thought that Memphis would be able to take care of the Terps. After Memphis' struggles in the first round and Maryland's solid win over Cal, this game may be much closer than previously expected.

Why Maryland will lose to Memphis:

1. Memphis has only lost 3 games: Statistically, Memphis is the hottest team in the country, winning their past 26 games. Their three losses are to legitimate opponents in Xavier, Syracuse, and Georgetown. One could argue that their winning streak can be attributed to the weakness of their conference. However I think that no matter who you play, winning 26 consecutive games and losing only 3 is remarkable.
2. Memphis is BIG: The Tigers start 2 players at least 6'9" and none shorter than 6'6". Memphis' two big men, Robert Dozier and Shwan Taggert, combine to average 23.2 points and 14.7 rebounds per game. There is no doubt that Memphis will get the ball to Dozier and Taggert as much as possible. Maryland has been able to occasionally limit big men like Tyler Hansborough but Memphis' two towers inside may be too much for the Terps to handle.
3. Tyreke Evans: The freshman ball handler for the Tigers averages over 16 points a game, 5 rebounds, and nearly 4 assists to go along with an average of 2 steals per game. Although he is not a substantial threat from three point range, he is a game changer who brings a lot of raw talent to the table.
4. Strong defense: Memphis is only allowing an unprecedented average of 57.3 points a game. In addition the Tigers are allowing their opponents to shoot a meager 36% from the field. With Maryland's occasional shakiness in ball handling, look for John Calipari's man-to-man defense to exploit the Maryland ball handlers.
5. Been there, done that: Memphis came up short last year in the finals of the NCAA tournament losing to Kansas. There is no doubt Memphis wants to avenge their loss. The Tigers are certainly capable of returning to the championship game. In addition, Memphis has not lost a second round matchup since losing to 3 seeeded Oklahoma State in 2004.

Why Maryland will beat Memphis:

1. The Terps have great guard play: Greivis Vasquez, Adrian Bowie, and Eric Hayes combined for 63 of Maryland's 84 points, 15 of their 18 assists, and only 5 turnovers against Cal on Thursday. If these three players continue to play smart and effective basketball against Memphis, I see no reason why they aren't capable of leading the Terps to the sweet 16.
2. Maryland has more big game experience this season: While Memphis has played against Gonzaga, Syracuse, and Xavier this season, the Tigers did not have the benefit of playing in the deep and talented ACC like Maryland. The strength of the ACC has prepared the Terps for anyone whereas Memphis has been beating up on teams like Southern Medodist, Houston, and Rice.
3. Memphis can't shoot free throws well: The Tigers are shooting 69% from the stripe this year. Against CSU-Northridge, Memphis shot 12-21 (57%). Since Memphis will be driving to the hoop a lot against the undersized Terps, expect for free throws to make a difference down the stretch against Maryland. The Terps on the other hand are shooting 77% from the line, good for 2nd best in the ACC.
4. Gary Williams: As mentioned in the Cal preview, Maryland has experience in the NCAA tournament, national championship experience. Gary Williams channels his passion and energy through his players and there is no doubt the Terps will be ready to play on Saturday.
5. Maryland is hot: The Terps were left for dead at 7-9 in the ACC after their embarassing loss to Virginia a couple weeks ago. Since that dissapointing game, the Terps have rebounded winning 3 out of their past 4. Of course Memphis has won 26 games in a row however Maryland is playing at a level that is currently capable of giving anyone a game.

What Maryland needs to do to beat Memphis:

1. Greivis Vasquez must continue leading: The Terps fiery leader continued his spectacular season against Cal scoring 27 points to go along with 4 assists and 5 rebounds. In the second half Vasquez shushed the crowd after stealing a Cal pass and scoring a lay-up. There is no doubt that Maryland's success is dependant on Vasquez's play. Vasquez is going to need to stay focused and play under control against Memphis like he did against Cal if Maryland wants a spot in the sweet 16.
2. Maintain strong defensive play: Memphis is going to drive to the basket much more than Cal did. Therefore Dave Neal and Dino Gregory are going to need to step up yet again to supress Memphis' inside game. Maryland has been able to limit teams with strong inside games this year however. Besides guarding the rim, Maryland is going to have to be especially agressive against Tyreke Evans. The freshman guard has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.07/1.
3. Attack the rim: Adrain Bowie was a prime example against Cal of how Maryland can spread the floor and open up players outside the arc when the Terps can effectively drive. Maryland isn't going to have the luxury of being able to easily attack the rim like they did against Cal. Memphis is an imposing group of players who are very underrated defensively. If Maryland isn't getting open looks from three, they will need to force the ball inside.

Prediction: Memphis 76 Maryland 72

I would like to hear what you have to say about this matchup. Feel free to disagree with anything I said and suggest your own reasons why Maryland or Memphis will win.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Tourney Time! Maryland-Cal Preview

The two most exciting weeks of the sports year just began. As a Maryland sports fan, things started out on the right foot. The Terps earned their spot in the field of 65. The Terps face off with Cal in Kansas City this Thursday. Tipoff is at 2:55.

Why Maryland will lose to Cal:

1. Cal puts up a good fight: Earlier this season, Cal played Florida State down to the wire in November losing by three, 80-77. A few weeks ago, the Golden Bears barely lost to then ranked #19 UCLA 72-68. Most recently in the Pac-10 tournament, Cal lost by four in a thriller against the Pac-10 tourney champion USC, 79-75.
2. Jerome Randle: The 5'10" junior point guard is among the nation's best high impact players. Not only is he averaging 18.4 points and 5 assists a game, he is shooting 47% from three point range, hitting 86% of his free throws, and is the undoubted leader of this Golden Bears team. By the way, he has scored at least 20 points 16 times this season.
3. Maryland is tired, Cal is rested: Although Cal was dismissed early from the Pac-10 tournament likely lowering their spirits, by Thursday, Cal will have only played one game in 12 days. At this point in the season, most teams need rest, Cal got it. Maryland on the other hand just finished playing in three hard fought contests this past weekend.

Why Maryland will beat Cal:

1. Maryland is hot, Cal is cold: Maryland won two huge games and competed well with Duke in the ACC tournament to give them the momentum and wins needed to get into the tourney. Cal has lost four of their previous six games, including a first round dismissal in the Pac-10 tourney.
2. Cal hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since 2003: Cal beat NC State back in the first round of the 2003 NCAA tourney. Not a single Golden Bear has NCAA tournament experience. Four Terps were on the roster in 2007 when Maryland was a four seed in the Big Dance.
3. Greivis Vasquez, Eric Hayes, and Dave Neal: These three players collectively averaged 43.7 points in the ACC tournament. Vasquez is the outright leader, Hayes is increasing his offensive production, and Dave Neal is showing his senior leadership. These three players will need to continue producing and leading if Maryland wants to beat Cal.
4. The Terps are predictably unpredictable: You never know with this team. They are capable of beating a top ten team at any point and they are capable of losing to teams like Morgan State and Virginia.
5. History: In Maryland's past eight trips to the NCAA Tournament, they have not lost a first round game. Maryland hasn't been booted from the first round since the 1997 tourney. Keith Booth was a senior that year.

What needs to happen for Maryland to beat Cal:

1. Continued production and leadership from Greivis Vasquez: The outright leader of the team is going to need to prove again that he can succeed when the season is on the line.
2. Landon Milbourne must step up: The junior forward has only averaged a mere 5.6 points in Maryland's three ACC games, almost a 50% drop from his season average of 11.6 points/game. His reliable mid-range jump shot is a great weapon to have when the Terps are overmatched inside and can't hit three points shots.
3. Maryland will need to limit Jerome Randle: The speedy and high-scoring Randle is going to need to be well defended by the Terps. Adrian Bowie is going to have a very long night if he cannot slow down Randle.
4. The pendulum must sway Maryland's way: Maryland is the epitome of an up-and-down team. Who knows what will happen this Thursday, but luck is going to play a role in this game as it does in a large portion of NCAA Tournament games.

Prediction: Maryland 74 Cal 66

I would really to hear what you have to say about the matchup and the fact the Terps have even made it this far.

Response to post by James:

The most important thing going for the Terps in this game is their experience and, as you mentioned, their head coach. Gary Williams has been here before and knows how to win in the NCAA tourney.

I understand your comment about the Terps being tired. Maryland has had less time off than Cal which may give a slight edge to the Golden Bears simply because they may be a little bit more fresh. However, Cal's extended break may come back to bite them. I wouldn't be surprised to see come out of the gates slowly.

Another important factor this game will be the playing style of Greivis Vasquez. Since Cal does not have a great inside presence, I would look for Vasquez to drive the lane more frequently than he did against Duke. Greivis has proved that he can step back and hit a three but he can also drive to the basket with the best of them. Regardless of how well Vasquez and the rest of the team is shooting from the field, Vasquez needs to get to the rim in this game.

BK

2nd response to comment:

Almost every team that controls the inside and outside game is pretty hard to beat. If Maryland can play solid defense in the tournament and not get too cold on offense, I foresee a potential Cinderella-like run. The Terps can't look ahead though. Gary Williams will make sure that his team doesn't think about the possibilities of playing Memphis. Cal should be the only thing on the Terps mind.

BK

Friday, March 13, 2009

Was this win really that surprising?

Yes. As unpredictable as Maryland has been this year, winning when they had to was the shocker. Beating #8 Wake Forest tonight should get the up-and-down Terps into the field of 65. Of course beating Duke or Boston College tomorrow afternoon would solidify their spot. At the very least, Maryland should try to stay as close as they can to their opponent tomorrow to give themselves as good of a chance as possible to please the selection committee.

Congratulations to Dave Neal. The man called by some to be a player found at the YMCA or in a Church League showed poise and a fiery passion tonight. The lone senior on the team, while not the outright leader, did as much as he could to help Maryland overcome adversity and put this game away late. While only scoring 10 points, his final bucket was the decisive basket in the game. His three pointer with 4:36 left gave the Terps 67 points, Wake finished with 64.

Some may say that this would've been much easier if the Terps had just taken care of business in Charlotesville last weekend. I think that losing to UVA has given the Terps the energy and desire to redeem themselves while playing their way back into the NCAA tournament discussion.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Maryland lives and dies with Greivis Vasquez

Losing to Wake Forest tonight was not a surprise. Before the game, not many could have expected Maryland to beat the tenth ranked from Winston-Salem. But at the 7:44 mark in the second half when Dave Neal single handidly gave the Terps a 54-48 lead, a Maryland win didn't seem out of the question. Unfortunately, because of Maryland's reliance on their streaky leader, Greivis Vasquez, the Terps couldn't hang on.

Gary Williams is going to have to let his players know that they need to put this game behind them as they prepare for what may be their most important game of the season this coming Saturday against Virginia. The face off in Charlottesvile will be eerily similar to last years matchup. At this point last year, the Terps were on a downward slide needing only one more win to beef up their NCAA tourney resume. Maryland lost that game last year with their back's against the wall, 91-76, and they needed an ACC tournament win to have any chance of getting into the big dance. Maryland lost their first round matchup with Miami in the ACC tourney and returned to the NIT for the third time in four years.

Could it be deja vu all over again? Perhaps, but Gary Williams and Greivis Vasquez have a chance to make up for the close loss tonight by going into Virginia and building their case for the selection comittee. Fortunately, the game is four days away; plenty of time to rest. I believe the two days that Maryland had off prior to tonight's game was partially to blame for why Maryland wasn't able to play the full 40 minutes.

Virginia has been playing better than their 3-12 ACC record suggests. They have won two of their past four home games which included a win against then 11th ranked Clemson. In addition, Virginia only lost to Miami by seven points and Wake Forest by 10. Although on paper it would appear that Maryland has the edge, Virginia will have the advantage in the always important intangibles this Saturday. It appears Maryland let their best chance at reaching 8 conference wins slip away tonight.

Monday, March 2, 2009

The Predictably Unpredictable Terps Surprise Us Again

Winning solves everything, almost. At 7-7 in the ACC and 18-10 overall, the Terps have solved the problems they seemed to have a few weeks ago. Gary Williams has regained his job security and fans aren't complaining about Greivis Vasquez, as much. I for one need to apologize for jumping on the 'get rid of Gary' bandwagon. After realizing that he has brought nothing but success to Maryland (an ACC best 16 straight winning seasons), I should be eternally grateful for all Gary has done and is doing.

After coming off a solid win last night in Raleigh, the Terps are in control of their own destiny. With two regular season games left and the ACC tournament, Gary's club has multiple opportunities to secure an at-large bid. ESPN's Joe Lunardi dedicates his whole job to projecting the field of 65. Currently, the Terps are in his 'Next Four Out' category which practically means the Terps are right on the fringe. Every single minute of the next few games will be crucial in deciding whether or not the Terps are tourney bound.

Greivis Vasquez is single handedly carrying this team. In the Terps ACC victories, Vasquez is averaging 21 points and an assists to turnover ratio of 2:1. In their ACC losses, Vasquez is only averaging 11.1 points and an abysmal assists to turnover ratio of nearly 1:1. Clearly, the team lives and dies with Greivis. Heading down the stretch, he is the guy the Terps have to rely on. As long as he doesn't get into foul trouble, which might have cost them the Duke game last week, Vasquez should play with the same contagious intensity he's displayed this season.